1.8 million fixed rate mortgages coming to an end throughout 2026
UK Finance has published its mortgage market forecast for 2026, including expectations for property transactions, lending, refinancing, and arrears and possessions.
UK Finance represents 300 firms including the biggest mortgage lenders and during 2026 it expects to see:
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Overall gross lending rise by four per cent to £300 billion.
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10,000 fewer property transactions in 2026 compared to 2025.
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A 10 per cent rise in external remortgaging and two per cent rise in Product Transfers.
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1.8 million fixed rate mortgages due to come to an end.
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A further five per cent fall in arrears.
| 2026 forecast | Year-on-year change compared to 2025 | |
|---|---|---|
| Remortgaging | £77 billion | 10 per cent |
| Property transactions | 1,202,000 | -1 per cent |
| Product Transfers | £261 billion | 2 per cent |
| Possessions | 9,400 | 9 per cent |
| New buy-to-let purchase lending | £11 billion | 0 per cent |
| Lending for house purchase | £180 billion | 2 per cent |
| Gross lending | £300 billion | 4 per cent |
| Arrears | 87,500 | -5 per cent |
Source: UK Finance
Home and buy-to-let purchases
Lending for house purchases grew by 22 per cent last year to £176 billion, with a notable spike in activity in advance of the stamp duty increase in April. During 2026, however, UK Finance forecasts growth of two per cent to £180 billion as affordability pressures become more challenging due to mortgage payments remaining high compared to borrower income.
Overall, the number of property transactions taking place is expected to slightly decline, from 1.21 million in 2025 to 1.20 million in 2026 and 2027.
Refinancing
The second half of last year saw strong growth in mortgage refinancing as more customers reached the end of their fixed rate deals. 1.6 million fixed rate mortgages expired in 2025 and around 1.8 million are due to expire in 2026.
This meant external remortgaging grew by 17 per cent to reach an estimated £71 billion in 2025, while Internal Product Transfers (where a borrower stays with their existing lender) rose by 18 per cent to £256 billion.
UK Finance expects steady growth next year in both types of refinancing, with external remortgaging growing 10 per cent to £77 billion and Product Transfers by two per cent to £261 billion.
Arrears and possessions
Mortgage arrears levels fell last year to 92,100, down from 104,800 the previous year. UK Finance expects arrears to continue to decline by five per cent in 2026, to 87,500.
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The information contained within was correct at the time of publication but is subject to change.
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